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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  October 17, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT

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just sold again for 9.5. that's double your price in four years. another property. a beach house in coral gables. sold for $9.8 million. properties sell about $1,000 per square foot. this one sold for 1rkz$1,500 a square foot. manhattan prices. with a little more sunshine. >> thank you, robert frank. >> thank you all for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans in for maria bartiromo. stocks a mixed day after the crisis in washington averted at the last minute, bill. >> see the dow there. the market is a little deceiving today. the industrial average would actually be positive if it wasn't for one stock. ibm. which reported those disappointing earnings last night. by the way, the s&p 500 is on track to close at a record high, believe it or not. >> remarkable.
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>> like all the turmoil and the slowdown. bob pisani, what are the traders making of today's market? >> you're right. put up the dow components and if it wasn't for ibm we would be 20 points positive. it's a price weighted index. 12 points. that's better than 70 points on the dow jones industrial average. amex had a terrific report overall. they're optimistic to answer your short term question. there's concerns about the guidance on earnings this quarter. put up semiconductors. cypress semiconductors came out and talked about weakness in the mobile hand set market. it's down. fairchild talked about sales this quarter below consensus. x ilinx talked about flat growth for the december quarter. it's not what the markets want to hear. see these stocks all to the downside. the conference call on ebay yesterday talked about rapid deceleration in the third quarter. problems with all the anxiety we see when we pick up the newspaper every day makes us
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cautious how we look at the holiday season. this is what they were concerned about. lowering t inin ining the numbe. see ebay down about 4%. still they're fairly optimistic. this is a consensus idea. we drop in the next two or three weeks because they're taking down earnings rather aggressively. but the market, the earnings will still be positive. market is going to rebound in two or three weeks after the earnings. buy into it. it rises toward the end of the year. the question here, bill, is whether or not the overall earnings growth slows down, which is the bull case, or whether it goes to zero on the s&p or even negative. if that happens, guys, all bets are off. the market is not anticipating that. that's why i'm watching every one of these companies. slowly but surely they keep knocking the numbers down here there's going to come a critical tipping point. if we go over that we're going to have a negative market reaction. back to you. >> thanks, bob. the d.c. drama is over for you. but the question remains, how did it affect where the markets are headed in the near future? yesterday we had blackrock's
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larry fink on the program who said they may not be going in the direction you may have hoped. listen. >> it really probably leads to a pretty weak fourth quarter. and, most importantly, it may drive a weakening in the first half of next year. >> should we be expecting a pullback in the next few months. joining us now is kim forest from fort pitt capital group. john doyle. samir samana and our own rick santelli. good afternoon. john, want to start with you. you just heard from larry fink there. certainly we're seeing the downgrades to fourth quarter growth coming in. the pushing out the fed taper into the first quarter of next year. by the way, we may not even know what the real extent of the damage is to the economy still because of the shutdown. so how soon do you expect the fed can exit the picture here? >> well, we believe that that's -- what you said is true. we don't see any reason for tapering at all in december. right now we're looking at potentially march beginning to taper. we're going to hold off to
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solidify that recommendation or that -- until we can get some of the delayed data that we had out. waiting on nonfarm payrolls and retail sales from last month. that will kind of give us a better idea of what the fed can do moving forward. >> kim forest, there are going to be people who say why in the world is the s&p near an all time high when corporate growth rates are slowing, we're seeing that in earnings reports right now, and we inevitably are going to see the tapering by the fed, which theoretically would slow things down as interest rates rise? so why is the stock market at an all time high right now do you think? >> well, i think one of the participants here is the fed. and they have made it such that, you know, they're inflating this asset class by doing what they're doing with qe. right now, it's pretty clear that we have to pay up on a multiple basis for a lot of stocks. and that's clearly what the -- the -- today's all-time high reflects. >> are you willing to pay that
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right now? >> not really. we've been very selective about what we buy. we're very price conscious investors. it's difficult to stick to the discipline, but that's what we do. >> if we look a hat tip to rich peterson in s&p, but just to take that multiple point and run with it, it looks like we're at about a 15.1 price to earnings multiple for the s&p 500 right now. that's a little bit below the 15.4 level we were at earlier. samir, how important is multiple expansion here? is that going to be ultimately the lever that's pulled if earnings aren't really growing? if so, does that mean that unfortunately the market starts to look a little bit more frothy relative to what's really happening in the economy? >> it's been the overall driver of returns. almost 2 to 1 multiparking light -- multiple expanses as opposed to earnings growth. it probably is a multiple story. that being said while you don't fight the fed you at least have to try to get back to a base
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case allocation where you make sure you're not going to bonds and cash allocations in your portfolio. also if you took the recent drama in d.c. to lean a little more into the international space, now is a good time to come back into the u.s. the dollar represents a little opportunity that could weigh on international markets. >> rick santelli, treasuries caught a bid today. yields are coming down. the dollar, eight-month low against the euro. gold up 3%. what do you make of today's market action? is this the result of the government getting back to work again or what's going on here? >> well, i think that everybody including every ceo is going to make it the case. it's going to be the bad weather to the millionth power in terms of excuses. definitely there is an effect. i take a step back and look at the market a little differently. especially the dollar index. if you look at the july employment rate, which was 104,000, it was the worst in a year, among the worst over two
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years, i think that was the beginning of a huge slide. we're at 84.50 in the dollar index before that report. we're now flirting with 79. so 5% of the 6% drop occurred long before the october 1st shutdown of the government. but, yes, there is an influence. we see that t-bill influence dissipated. the rates move very close to zero again. a lot of to do about nothing with regard to default. i know it was messy. listen, i was on record. there's nobody in my world who believed the republicans wouldn't blink. i don't know. i think they refused to cut the baby in half. that being said, it looks like we may have the lowest yield close since about august 9th on a ten year. sub 2.60. keep it in context. still wildly higher than pretaper talk, 1.60. >> sameer, it's incredible to see what's happened with rates over the last trading session. how much are people pricing in a federal reserve that's going to be more accommodative, i guess,
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than anything we might have thought just 24 or 48 hours ago? >> honestly, it seems like consensus is already there. you've heard a couple other guests mention, blackrock and pimco have come out and said they're thinking tapering can still aid. you're starting to see consensus move farther out into the year. the last time we had this much consensus was in september when the fed surprised everybody and didn't taper. what i would tell people is to be leery about consensus moving too far out into 2014. if you look at the minutes from the september meeting said, they wanted to do it in 2013. now maybe that gets delayed to 2014. i don't think the fed waits too long. the balance sheet is very high. i think they are afraid to increase it too much further. >> all right, folks. thank you very much for your thoughts on today's market action. see you later. heading toward the close, we got about 52 minutes left in the trading session here. the dow is down 36 points right now. >> the s&p positive. in fact, bill, as you said, it could be a fresh all time high for this index. ibm, though, accounting for
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nearly all the dow's losses today. coming up, we'll hear from someone who says big blue's decline is your opportunity to buy this stock on the cheap. also, now that the government is back open and the debt ceiling has been pushed back for another couple months, what do lawmakers need to do to win voters back? polls have confidence in our leaders at an all time low right now, which does not exactly create hope for a long term deal that will avert the crisis. every few months merry go round. i feel like i've got a hymn going on. up next, we'll hear from a top white house aide and a republican senator who voted for the debt deal last night. stay tuned. if you have the audacity to believe in straight talk,
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welcome back. congress finally reaching a temporary debt ceiling deal. you may be outraged to find out what the new deal was filled with. eamon javers has the details. >> they call them sweeteners. they're the little do dads they throw into bills in order to get everybody to buy in.
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that happened in this debt ceil fight as well. late into the night they were crafting the legislative language. a couple odds and ends slipped into the bill. a couple of the biggest ones. starting with the most controversial. an increase in funding authority for an ohio river tdam project that benefits the state of kentucky to $2.9 billion. also benefits in there for the family of frank lautenberg, late senator of new jersey. $174,000 going to his family. a lot of people noting he was a multimillionaire at the time of his death. it's traditional to give that death benefit to the family of a deceased senator. 450 million tlrs to a colorado flood rebuilding funds. a lot of things slipping into this bill. not necessarily pleasing to people who crusade against earmarks and spending. this will only increase voter cynicism about the process, if
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that is even possible. you can only imagine what's going to happen in the next one of these. they expect the next big budget deal bill is going to be a lot bigger than this one which was only 36 pages. >> we can only hope it will be bigger and there'll be something nor all encompassing achieved at that time. eamon, thanks very much. do dads. i like that term. >> it's a technical term. >> so we have a deal for now. how does the government win back the confidence of the american public in the meantime? >> gene spurling is director of the national economic council and assistant to the -- >> welcome back, gene. >> thanks for having me. >> you've been there four years. your time with the president as we understand is nearly up. how much urgency do you feel in your conversations with him? how much urgency is there in the obama administration to overcome the ham strung fiscal policy that we've seen over the last four years and take the reins
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from the federal reserve when it comes to the national economic policy? >> let's put it in context. there has been progress. we have reduced the deficit by $2.5 trillion. the budget the president has would actually bring the deficit to as low as 2% of gdp over the next five, six years. we really are on a path to progress if we could get some bipartisan compromise through this new conference committee we've discussed. i think what the president wanted to first and foremost do was take away the negative drag and harm we've done to the economy through manufactured crisis. and particularly more than anything, the idea of using the threat of default as kind of a budget tactic. i was able to talk to a lot of the leading financial people in the world over these last few weeks. and what i heard repeatedly was the fact that this happened a second time in two years was having very negative impacts on people's confidence in the u.s.,
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confidence in our treasury bills. and that if we have a third strike in three years, it could do lasting damage. i think it will be a very important thing if we can look back at this moment and say, perhaps this is the moment where we said that the era of threatening default is over. and that we're going to at least go back to dealing with our bipartisan differences in the way it should be. like a conference committee where you -- two house -- a democratic senate and a house -- a republican house come together and work out their differences. that's what we're taught in school. it's how a conference committee works. now we have a chance to see that in action. >> wouldn't that be nice if it could work out that way. we talk about that all the time. it just never seems to happen. i will say this. and i'm not trying to play partisan politics here on you, gene. you don't have to yell my name out like you do with maria all the time, which i understand. what we heard often from ceos who consider themselves experts at negotiation is that you needed a mediator between the
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democrats and the republicans, especially the extremists. and feeling was from a lot of ceos, it fell to the president. it should have been the administration coming down in the middle somewhere trying to mediate some sort of a deal at that time. now, i don't know what was going on behind the scenes. but at least publicly it just -- the message seemed to be the president wasn't going to get involved in the tussle as long as they were still demanding retracement of obama care and the raising of the debt ceiling and all this other thing that was going on at the same time. do you feel like the administration needs to have a greater hand the next time around to keep us from some sort of debacle in january? >> well, it's not going to shock you that i don't agree with the premise of your question. >> of course. >> well, but, no, let's be fair. we've had over these last two or three years, you've seen the president negotiate actually personally, face to face, with the speaker at times. with both leaders. we've had some agreements that have worked. we've reduced the testideficit 5
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trillion. his level of engagement, his willing to negotiate and compromise has been clear. as he says, he's been criticized at somes by some of his supporters for going too far and being willing to negotiate. the president was talking about a very important principle for our economy. which is that if we go through a -- you know, a yearly event where the world watches us threaten default, it is going to hurt confidence in our economy in ways that could have lasting damage. and the president actually giving way to that, making concessions at the end, was going to encourage that type of threatening default happening every year. i think the more ceos who -- just a second. the more ceos who have heard that logic understood that the president's absolutely willing to negotiate on small, medium or large fiscal budget deals. he was trying to do something important not only for his presidency, but for the next presidency and our democracy and the sense of confidence people
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have in our system by taking the threat of default off the table. that was important. >> i get that. i get that. you know, purely from a political standpoint, this is a president who's no longer running for office. he can do anything he wants and not worry about voter backlash down the road. why not get your hands dirty a little more this time around and risk being seen as too interventionist. who cares if you're an interventionist. if a better deal comes out of it, why not? >> i don't think your question takes seriously enough how important the point the president has made. in terms of taking political risk, the president has taken those risks. the president, first of all, made a lot of very tough politically courageous choices in his negotiation with the speaker. then he kept those options on the table. even changes to future medicare beneficiaries and the cpi. things were very difficult. very controversial. so he has taken a lot of risk for compromise. what he's trying to do, it's not
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about not intervening or intervening, it's about protecting the full faith and credit of the united states. and making clear that can't be a yearly bargaining chip. if we do this, you're going to see less people having confidence in our system, in our treasuries. and that's going to mean higher interest payments, higher cost of capital for us, for all of us. for years, maybe decades to come. >> all right. >> it was not about not negotiating. it's about the important principle of protecting our full faith and credit. >> let's look forward now and not back. gene sperling, thank you very much for your time. picking up on that point, let's see how congress plans to restore confidence from here. >> john hoeven is a republican from north dakota joining us right now. did you vote for the bill yesterday? >> yes, i did. >> why? >> well, it doesn't have the things in that i wanted it for or i believe that it needs, which is structural reforms and savings. but it's the best teal we could get right now because the president isn't willing to
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negotiate, contrary to what mr. sperling just said. we had to get government open. we had to make sure we didn't default on our debt. look, we need a debt ceiling agreement that actually attacks the underlying problems we have, which is that we're spending more than we're taking in. >> senator, isn't the reality, though, the debt ceiling just gives more leverage to you, to your party, to the minority group in washington to negotiate where it may not necessarily have deserved a negotiating stance based on the share of the vote that it won from the public? >> kelly, what we're working on, we purposely kept the time line short and we set up a process to make sure that we get the kind of structural reforms and savings we need to attack the underlying drivers of our debt and deficit. look, the president wants higher taxes, more regulation. it's just not going to work. you see what's happening with our economy. he's got to join with us and get the kind of reforms we need. not only to solve the deficit and the debt but to get the economy going. >> will it be different next
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time, the negotiations, do you think? i mean, the reason i ask, the premise we're acting on today is what can congress do to win back the confidence of the u.s. public that is so disillusioned and fed up with congress at this point? washington overall. not just congress. washington. what has to happen the next time around to get a deal done that will please at least most of the americans? you're not going to please everybody every time. >> we didn't get what we need in this deal. but what we did was set up a process to go into negotiation, to determine how we can come up with -- >> this process continues. we've set up time to do that negotiation as the president wanted. now he has to join with us and we have to come up with structural reforms and savings. real solutions. that's what's going to get our economy going, get our debt and deficit under control. that's what the american people want to see. it's not like we stop now.
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we go right into it and get this job done. >> right. senator, we've all agreed on the means all along. on the ends, i'm sorry, all along. the trouble is the means. just today hearing, i believe, grover norquist, it was, earlier reiterating he didn't want any new taxes. hearing generally from people on your side of the aisle, they don't want to raise revenue. on the other side of the aisle they don't want to cut entitlements or cut taxes. sounds like we are back at square one. and what, if anything, can be done to avert this same outcome in that case this time around? >> kelly, two things. first, as far as more revenue, that comes from economic growth, not higher taxes. we're willing to reform the tax code in a way that will actually create more economic growth and revenue from growth. also, as far as entitlements, look, we need to restructure entitlements to protect and preserve social security and medicare. we need to do it in a way where we aren't changing it for folks at or near retirement. but the demographics for younger people are different. but if we don't do these things, those programs aren't going to be financially and fiscally
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sound for the long run. those are the kind of changes we need to make on a bipartisan basis, republicans and democrats. >> senator, the economic growth that you're talking about that would raise revenue has just been harmed by the negotiations or lack thereof in washington over the last couple of weeks. >> and you asked me at the outset, did i vote for the agreement. yes, i did. it did not have what i wanted in there. i think we've got to do the things i'm talking about. but i thought we had to get government open and make sure we didn't default on our debt. so we've done those things. now let's solve the underlying problems. >> last question. do you understand the public's frustration? the anger that seemed to come out of the poll results last friday where 60% of the americans who were polled said they would just fire everybody in congress? do you understand that level of frustration right now and why it's there? >> of course. because we were sent here to deal with these real challenges, which are tough challenges. i was a governor for ten years. i understand we have to govern. that's why i'm saying, this isn't a break. we have to be working right now
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to truly address the big issues that we're talking about here. >> senator john hoeven from north dakota. senator, we really appreciate your time this afternoon. >> thank you, senator. >> thank you. let's take a look back, bill, at markets. just about half an hour left to go. a pretty impressive rally today. especially if you look at the s&p and exclude the dow suffering because of a couple components. >> s&p in record territory. dow now down just 26 points. ibm responsible for all the dow's losses today. is now the index's worst performer in 2013. when we come back, we'll find out if this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy big blue. also, google earnings will be out after the bell today. at the top of your search will be goog p. >> that's wh>> that's what it s >> instant analysis on the tech giant's numbers as soon as they hit. stay with us for all that. ows or clients trade and invest their own way. with scottrade's smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading.
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just a moment ago while we were in the break the s&p hit an intraday all time high. we continue to see the markets wrus p just power higher into all time high territory. s&p right now up about eight points at 1729 and change. the dow coming back as well. what's going on here, jackie deangelis has been keeping an eye on all of the market action for us today. >> good afternoon, bill. we've got the big movers for you. we're going to begin with blackberry which spiked on a dow jones report that lenovo has signed a nondisclosure agreement to look at blackberry's books.
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meantime goldman sachs reporting better than expected third quarter earnings. raising its quarterly dividend by 10%. investors focusing on revenues that came in well below expectations due to weak bond trading volumes. that stock taking a big hit today. amarin plummeting after an fda panel said its fish oil drug designed to low eer tri glis ris shouldn't be approved for a broader patient population. and darden residents rising today. there were reports that darden had hired goldman sachs as its financial adviser. also, mattress makers losing a little sleep today. this after select comfort slowered its fwi dance for the year, blaming the u.s. economy. finally, bill, ibm falling to a two-year low after reporting a 4% drop in third quarter revenue ahid amid a decline in hardware sales. hardware mostly hit in china which accounts for about 4% of big blue's business.
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>> this proves my premise. people are losing sleep during the slowdown. they're not buying mattresses right now. >> there you go. >> mattress makers down sharply. but so is ibm. that stock down sharply overnight and today as a result of the earnings. is it a buying opportunity or is there still some serious caution with this company? >> joe forest is an janning capital markets. a neutral rating on ibm. lito isle advisers managing partner jason -- >> i always thought lito aisle would make a great hawaiian restaurant name. >> from a trading standpoint, i actually will say even though i'm a long term bull, i do honestly believe ibm could drop another 5% to 10%. a 10% drop would take the share price down to about 160.
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i think it would be a screaming buy for a long term port tofolif it dropped 10%. thing is ibm is going through bumps in the road. i think ibm stands for international business machines. also it stands for in a bull market. we are in a bull market in the overall stock market. ibm has an incredible upward trend over a multidecade period. a short term bump in the road. >> jason, come on. revenue has been on the decline for the last three months here. that's not very good news in a bull market. >> yeah. the thing is revenue, that is true, bill. however, revenue does not equal profit. i'd rather have profit margins going up than revenue going up without any profit. ibm does have patches over a long term historical period of decreasing revenues but increasing profit margins. i think this is what we're seeing now. i don't think it's a big deal. >> joe, there's a ton of concerns about the future of the business in china. what do you think about the shares here? >> yeah. we would wait for the 10% drop that jason's talking about.
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i mean, there's two fundamental issues with the stock. the first one is, is that this 2015 plan they have to produce $20 in earnings is essentially choking the business model. the second thing is you can't cut or structure your way to earnings growth. at some point this company is going to need to grow to develop the earnings. they haven't grown in six or seven quarters. we're worried about margin leverage that protects the profitability. the 2015 plan is clearly becoming a problem. they're having trouble hitting those targets. you've seen that the last five or six quarters. without growing you put more and more pressure on this company, this very large company to produce the kind of profit margins that are necessary for people to be interested in the stock. we wait for that drop before we decide to get more interested. >> yeah. i was going to say what has to change for you to change your view on that, joe? >> well, simple word. growth. show me the growth. she me it in services. show me it in hardware. show me it in software. show me a world map that -- go ahead. >> go ahead, jason.
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>> and/or show me a road map that's going to get me to that profitability. >> for someone who, let's say, doesn't want to wait till some potential 10% drop which may or may not happen, i think the bull case for ibm is that they are shifting from low margin business to high margin business. and right now, they have not finalized this ultimate vision of full on high margin business. so this is a bump in the road. it's not an absolute kind of bear market signal here. i think the cloud revenue actually went up by 70%. they just made huge acquisitions of software. just signed multibillion dollar multiyear contracts with uni credit. they're doing good things in this high margin territory. >> it has been the water cooler talk today on ibm. thank you for your thoughts. i do love that name. lido aisle. >> who knew it was such a tongue twister. half an hour left as we enter the final stretch of the trading day. dow down by about 26 points.
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on the .2%. the s&p has turned positive, hitting all time intraday highs fwl it was blackrock ceo larry fink who was saying right here on "closing bell" about this time yesterday that the dysfunction in d.c. could have a big impact on the fed. listen. >> i think it's going to force the federal reserve to push off the tapering at the very least to march. but maybe as late as june until you see better understanding of what this is going to have to do related to the economy. >> delaying till june? when we come back we'll talk about whether larry is dead on with that assessment and what that kind of delay would mean for the market. still to come. legalzoom has helt over 1 million businesses. if you have a business idea, we have a personalized legal solution that's right for you. with easy step-by-step guidance, we're here to help you turn your dream into a reality. start your business today with legalzoom.
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before the debt crisis took crept center stage, all the talk was about tapering by the fed. yesterday larry fink said it's time to put the talk to rest for a while, at least. listen to what he said yesterday. >> yes. i think it is going to have an impact on job creation. i think it's going to defer investments. i think it's going to force the federal reserve to push off the tapering at the very least to march, but maybe as late as june until you see better
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understanding of what this is going to have to do related to the economy. >> so is that the case? what will the new fed do under its incoming chair, janet yellen. what does it all mean for markets from here. joined by dorothy weaver, ceo and co-founder of collins capital. and kenny copari. kenny, you heard larry there. one of our guests earlier as well at the top of the hour said he thinks it's going to be march. what say you? >> i absolutely agree. because i think prior -- even prior to this shutdown the fed was cautious on when to begin taper. everyone thought september, then october. ben bernanke came out and made it clear it wasn't. now we had the shutdown and all the resulting effects we're yet to see, i think we're easily into 2014 and probably march. june might be a stretch. i think at least march. >> dorothy, you used to work at the fed. ben bernanke said it's all dependent on data. do you think the data will allow them to begin tapering sooner rather than later? what's your expectation? >> i would agree.
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it's not going to be sooner rather than later. but it's not all dependent on data. it also is sentiment. it's the lack of confidence. it's the fact that people do not think that we have our fiscal house in order and that congress is going to take charge. bernanke said from the beginning that he cannot do this alone. it is not a monetary solution. >> how do you quantity -- how do quantify confidence? what has to happen to prove there's enough confidence in the economy to allow them to start tapering? >> very hard. it's not something that you quantify. it's not a number. it's going to really be -- and i think the reason that we didn't taper before was a recognition that we were moving into exactly what we just lived through. as long as we think it's ahead of us, there won't be a tapering. >> dorothy, just one more point, though. because this is not supposed to be the same fed that we had in 2005 and 2006. one of the lessons from that period, both here and abroad, is supposed to be more of a focus
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on macro prudential tools. in other words, if i'm the fed. i see stocks up as sharply as they are this year. indexes at new all-time highs. some pretty -- some pretty easy lending terms if you want to call it that in terms of the corporate bond issuance space. at some point doesn't that have to factor into what they do to make sure they're not developing another problem, a repeat scenario of what got us into trouble the last time around? >> absolutely. and that's the tight rope they have to walk. as you see this new fed that's going to be coming in, it's fwoi going to be a brand-new group of people. only two are going to be carry overs. the others have either resigned or are term limited. obama is going to have a chance to name a whole new governance. which is an incredible power. because they will be there for 14 years. to the extent it's unfinished terms, even beyond that. so we have a whole new group of people, including the new presidents, that will be coming
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on, anchored by richard fisher from dallas. a new ball game. >> oh, boy. it occurs to me, kenny, the one way you can quantify public confidence in the economy is through the stock market. >> part of that is created by the fed itself. >> which is exactly the problem. dorothy made that point. kelly made the point. the market is trading much more on the fed than it is on funtmefun fundamentals. if the fed starts to pull out, we all see what happens. the fed doesn't let the market price the risk for reality, what the reality is today. that's going to be the problem. whether or not the yellen fed takes over, we get all these new participants, the fact is, they're in pretty deep. all these new players are not going to want to make a decision that i think is going to start to send tremors through the globe space. >> let me play devil's advocate. >> it's really hard to go cold turkey. >> that said, there are people at jpmorgan, still thinks there's about a 30% chance the
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taper could happen in december. the more i see people kick this out to maybe the first part of next year, the more you say maybe it comes right before christmas. even though it comes before the next round of fiscal deadlines. why not start the glide path as bernanke leaves? >> i think there's too much risk. i think in december we're going to come right back to the government, the political risk, right? because december 15th is the day where they're supposed to come up with this new tax plan. then january 15th they're supposed to do the budget again. then february 7th is the debt ceiling. so there's too much i think in line. >> absolutely. if in october when everyone had it factored in, they didn't go for it because they were concerned about the federal, they definitely aren't going to do it in december when they know they've got another round. >> very quickly, dorothy. esther george, super hawk on the fed, said today the fed should begin tapering today and not worry about market response, whatever it may be. what's wrong with that reasoning? >> there's nothing wrong with the reasoning. that's certainly where richard fisher is coming from. that's certainly where we've got another one of the presidents
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that's going to be coming oncoming from. one are looking at the real economy. the others are looking at the effect the fed has on the market. >> the wealth effect is about the only effect left at this point. a powerful lever for them to pull. got to leave it there, guys. thank you very much, dorothy and kenny. heading toward the close. a little less than 20 minutes left on the trading session here. the dow trying to make its way back. but the s&p is in record territory right now. >> after being down triple digits this morning, bill, on the dow, we should add. google is the big name set to report earnings after the close. jon fortt will have a preview of their numbers, next. write this down. there are 75 days left in the year. that's it. but congress will not be working all of those days. wait until you hear just how many days are left for them to work. getting a grand deal done with congress's schedule may just well be, yes, that's why we're playing "mission impossible." find out if another crisis is inevitable later on the "closing bell." (vo) you are a business pro.
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mid-size price. (aaron) purrrfect. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro. welcome back. some disappointing earnings from ibm and goldman sachs weighing down the dow today. >> can google give this market a spark with its results due out in a few minutes at the top of the hour? jon fortt, you've got a preview for us. what are we expecting. >> bill, kelly, it's going to
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come down to a couple of things. overall ad sales and the performance of motorola which launched its flag ship moto x phone around the quarter. analysts are looking for revenue x tag of 1.7 billion. gap eps of $8.45. nongap eps of $9.56. i think we want to look at gap and nongap eps because of motorola restructuring charges. other numbers to watch, paid clicks has been trending higher and mobile grows and google flexes its enormous share. you want to see healthy year over year. cost per click has been trending down for mobile at the same type. motorola one of the big question marks. is this multibillion dollar investment paying off with the moto x? you want to see sales in that unit well above $1 billion. we'll see, kelly. >> yes, we will. could be half an hour or so before we get those results. about 13 minutes left before the
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closing bell here on wall street with the dow down only 12 points. quite a comeback today. meanwhile, the s&p trying to close at a record high. stick around. find out if it does and where you should be putting your money to work in this crazy market environment. stay tuned. at a ford dealer with a little q and a for fiona.
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see the dow? look at it. down just a point right now. >> incredible. >> if you get a chance, guys, show us what ibm is doing. that could be one of the reasons that the dow is coming back. the dow it shall ibm was accounting for 90 down points, minus sign points, for the dow for a lot of today. that's still down 6%. other stocks are coming back enough that the dow is turning positive here momentarily while the s&p is in record territory. >> lots of talk about the curse of the dow. goldman was weighing, too, of course, after just being added. those components coming a little bit off their lows. that's enough given what is happening across the broader market to turn things almost positive. again, the s&p 500 just hit a fresh intraday high. it is over, look at this, 1730 has been a key resistance level a lot of guys around here watching. 1733 the latest. >> j.j. burns and ben pace, how
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about this market? >> yeah. it's been great. we got through all the government issues. it it looks like the money is going into stocks. you're getting multiple expansion. you might continue to go that through the rest of the wreer. >> actually, j.j., multiple expansion a theme we're starting to hear more and more about. is that evidence of a healthy market? >> i think that the trend that you have right now is beyond just a healthy market. we're seeing some money that actually left the market, which we've seen the dollar come down a little bit. i think that investors here are looking for better valuations, specifically in emerging markets and overseas. the potential soft lining that could be engineered in china. i think there's some really good value over there. more importantly, there's very specific sectors that i think will continue to do very well and could actually achieve higher valuations of that 15, 16, 17 multiple here. >> such as? >> i think things that will
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benefit from demographic trends, like nike. companies that will benefit from higher interest rates like mastercard, visa. additionally, companies in the area of industrials like information technology will continue to do well and cloud computing. >> but growth is sub par. we all know that. i mean, the fed didn't begin tapering partly because they were worried about the wrangling going on in washington. but it's sub par growth we see right now. so why is the s&p at all time highs at this point? are they seeing something down the road we don't yet? or is it simply because it's the only place to invest given the fed's policy? >> there's a little of that there is no alternative aspect of it. growth might be sub par, but the risk of recession is very low. so the risk of us going into negative earnings or negative gdp growth a lot lower than it was this time last year. that's why there's a little bit more confidence. stocks at 15 times earnings still aren't that expensive given zero percent interest rates in -- >> there's still a danger, though, here. that is that the fed -- that too many people are taking their
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cues, taking the cue of a stronger stock market as evidence that we're out of the wood shed or that everyone's okay. we're out of the woods, i say. >> or the wood shed, too. >> i guess, wouldn't we rather be in a situation where we have stronger gdp growth even if it means the fed's -- that's the healthier development for the longer term. >> i think that the fed, the washington, d.c. dynamics and she nan beg shenanigans going on has taken us to the wood shed and seen the chain saw in there. some damage can be done. now that we're out of the wood shed to a degree and we're probably going to repeat this groundhog day again in three months, we are seeing evidence of labor improving. manpower agency, their stock at six year highs of labor and demand. the market wants to go higher because it sees evidence labor is improving to a degree. albeit modestly. >> woodsheds.
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we just created the next wes craz craven movie just standing here. >> not even halloween yet. coming up next, we'll be right back with the closing cou countdown. google's earnings coming out any minute now. instant analyst as soon as the numbers are released. you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. transit fares! as in the 37 billion transit fares we help collect each year. no? oh, right. you're thinking of the 1.6 million daily customer care interactions xerox handles. or the 900 million health insurance claims we process. so, it's no surprise to you that companies depend on today's xerox for services that simplify how work gets done. which is...pretty much what we've always stood for. with xerox, you're ready for real business. ♪
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welcome back. tale of two markets today. the s&p will be the star. won't get a lot of the headlines. but it should. all time high territory here as we're going out. took out the old intraday high by about three points. right now up two-thirds of a percent at 1732.96. the one that always gets the headlines the dow. lower today on the open by 100 points due mainly to ibm. goldman sachs had something to do with that. so did united health care. then it generally has come back. we were positive just a moment ago even though ibm is still down 6% at this hour. that was the big earnings disappointment last night. tonight we get google. the numbers are all over the board here. i won't go into that because there's a gap number, a nongap number, revenue to worry about. right now google is down $8 or almost 1% at $889. ben willis, what happened today? i mean, you might have imagined that this market would sell off
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on the news that they got a deal done in washington. that didn't happen. except for the ibm situation. >> we did on the opening. the markets across the world. we bought on the rumor of the government coming back to work. sold on the news. then that was a very short respite in between. off we went again. >> bought the dip. >> there was a great show today. by all rights, we could have taken a break today from all of the nonsense we lived through. but the market charged ahead and this looks like the only game in town. >> because they're expecting better economic times? or just because the fed is still -- >> the fed saying we're not going to taper. even fisher of all people saying there's no justification to do it i think was really the motivation. you don't fight the fed. the only place to be right now is the equity market. >> is that where you are? >> that is where i am. i don't see any justification unless you're a very old retired person to have any exposure to the bond market. i don't understand it long term. especially any kind of long term investor. you have to have exposure here.
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even utilities of all places seem to be giving me an indication of interest. >> they pay interest. that's why. thanks, ben. so we're going out. again, the story today, the s&p 500 at a new all time high. the dow down about ten points. blame ibm. get ready. here comes google's earnings as we get ready for the second hour of the "closing bell." look at that. it's a fresh closing high for the s&p 500. the dow jones industrial average just shy of turning positive after being down triple digits at the open. welcome to the "closing bell." kelly evans in for maria bartiromo. bill griffith with me. two greens. a far different picture than how things looked a few hours ago this morning. dow down by a couple points. nasdaq turning around, posting a gain of abou

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